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Decrease trend of East Asia dust during the 21st century in CMIP6
  • Weijie Wang,
  • Tiantao Cheng
Weijie Wang
Duke Kunshan University

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Tiantao Cheng
Fudan University
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Abstract

A reduction of dust emission over the major dust source regions in East Asia in the twenty-first century is diagnosed in the climate change simulations of the Sixth Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Such change is attributable to the reduction of surface wind speeds in the dust source regions. To evaluate how the magnitude of warming affects dust emission, we examined two model scenarios, one high-forcing pathway and one medium-forcing pathway. We find dust optical depth over dust source regions would decrease by 5.6% by the end of the twenty-first century under the high-forcing pathway. Under the medium-forcing pathway, dust optical depth would decrease by less than 2%. These results provide a quantitative understanding of how global warming affects dust emission in the major dust source regions in East Asia.