Abstract
Projections of future climate change to support decision-making require
Earth system models (ESMs) running at high spatial resolution, but this
is computationally prohibitive. A major challenge is the calibration
(parameter tuning) during the development of ESMs, which requires
running large numbers of simulations to identify the optimal values for
parameters that are poorly constrained by observations. Here we train a
convolutional neural network (CNN) on perturbed parameter ensembles from
two lower-resolution (and thus much less expensive) versions of the same
ESM, and a smaller number of higher-resolution simulations.
Cross-validated results show that the CNN’s skill exceeds that of a
climatological baseline for most variables with as few as 5-10 examples
of the higher-resolution ESM, and for all variables (including
precipitation) with at least 20 examples. This proof-of-concept study
offers the prospect of significantly more efficient calibration of ESMs,
by reducing the required CPU time for calibration by 20-40
\%