The last great megathrust earthquake in the Cascadia subduction zone occurred in AD 1700, predating the instrumental record. While modern geodetic techniques capture the ongoing interseismic deformation, paleoseismic records provide estimates of the coastal subsidence over the AD 1700 event. Here, we connect these geodetic and paleoseismic observations using a 3D quasi-dynamic earthquake cycle model. The model includes a realistic slab geometry and simulates the earthquake cycle under the assumption that the coseismic rupture is consistent with the interseismic locking pattern. The model predictions agree well with both paleoseismic estimates of coastal subsidence during and after the earthquake, as well as geodetic data on the current interseismic surface velocity field. This suggests that our rupture-locking consistency assumption is realistic for the central Cascadia subduction zone, and the rupture patches in the AD 1700 event may be persistent in the next megathrust event.

We use a mechanical model in the context of Bayesian inference to constrain the relative contribution of driving and resistive regional forces to the observed surface deformation. The finite element model straddles the Nubian-Eurasia plate boundary, is viscoelastic, and has fault zones representing regional active faults. Deformation is driven by velocities of surrounding plates and by lateral variations in gravitational potential energy in all models. The magnitudes of slab pull and trench suction at subduction zones, and of active asthenospheric convection are search parameters. Velocities of our median model fit the observations very well. Slip directions agree with focal mechanisms on most model fault zones. Slip rakes and rates agree only partly with results from previous block modeling studies. We find that significant trench suction forces are required on all trenches. Slab pull is irrelevant, and convective shear tractions have a small imprint on the observed deformation of the overriding plate. The average viscosity of the Eurasian lithosphere is 1.5(±0.5)x1022 Pa.s. Resistive shear traction rates are small along all plate boundary segments, except the Kephalonia fault zone. Shear traction rates are significant along all intraplate fault zones, except the northern branch of the North Anatolian Fault zone. We propose a novel way to estimate the rate at which fault zones accumulate slip deficit. We find that slip deficit rates on model faults range between 1.2 and 4.5 mm/yr.

Greater landward velocities were recorded after 6 megathrust earthquakes in subduction zone regions adjacent to the ruptured portion. Previous explanations invoked either increased slip deficit accumulation or plate bending during postseismic relaxation, with different implications for seismic hazard. We investigate whether bending can be expected to reproduce this observed enhanced landward motion (ELM). We use 3D quasi-dynamic finite element models with periodic earthquakes. We find that afterslip downdip of the brittle megathrust exclusively produces enhanced trenchward surface motion in the overriding plate. Viscous relaxation produces ELM when a depth limit is imposed on afterslip. This landward motion results primarily from in-plane elastic bending of the overriding plate due to trenchward viscous flow in the mantle wedge near the rupture. Modeled ELM is, however, incompatible with the observations, which are an order of magnitude greater and last longer after the earthquake. Varying mantle viscosity, plate elasticity, maximum afterslip depth, earthquake size, and megathrust locking outside of the rupture does not significantly change this conclusion. The observed ELM consequently appears to reflect faster slip deficit accumulation, implying a greater seismic hazard in lateral segments of the subduction zone.

Since the start of production in 1968 in the Groningen gas field (Netherlands) considerable land subsidence (>30 cm) has occurred above the field. Variability in reservoir compaction has led to earthquakes on reactivated Mesozoic age reservoir faults. Even though the impact of this seismicity (MW ≤3.6) on society has been large, due to substantial structural damage to buildings, surface deformation induced by the co-seismic slip has been too small to detect using geodetic data. It is possible that differential compaction across faults is not only accommodated by seismic slip, but also by aseismic slip (e.g., creep). Aseismically slipping reservoir faults would relax the stresses in the reservoir and, thus, reduce the severity of the seismicity. In this study we explore the potential occurrence of aseismic slip on the reservoir faults. We perform a sensitivity analysis to investigate whether aseismic slip on the different reservoir faults has the capacity to produce detectable surface signals. We use the analytical Okada (1992) model of slip on a discrete dislocation in a uniform elastic half-space to simulate the deformations originating from slip on a wide range of fault geometries, representing the variability in the field. Unsurprisingly, laterally extensive faults with strong compaction contrasts across them (large differential slip magnitudes) produce the largest surface signals. To determine which potentially aseismically slipping faults produce surface signals that could be detectable in persistent scatterer InSAR time series, we analyze the surface patterns for large differential displacements across large length scales, since InSAR observations are most sensitive to spatially extensive patterns with high spatial gradients. We use the results of the sensitivity analysis to guide our search for patterns originating from aseismically slipping reservoir faults in PS-InSAR time series data of the Groningen area. First results show that these specific patterns are rare, indicating that the amount of aseismic slip is limited. For faults lacking surface signals related aseismic slip, the results of sensitivity analysis are used to determine upper limits for the aseismic differential slip magnitudes.

Plate reconstruction studies show that the Neotethys Ocean was closing due to convergence of Africa and Eurasia towards the end of the Cretaceous. The period around 75 Ma reflects the onset of continental collision between the two plates, although convergence was still mainly accommodated by subduction, with the Neotethys slab subducting beneath Eurasia. Africa was separated from the rapidly north moving Indian plate by the Owen oceanic transform in the northeast. The rest of the plate was surrounded by mid-ocean ridges. Geologic observations in large basins show that Africa was experiencing continent-wide rifting related to northeast-southwest extension. We aim to quantify the forces and related paleostresses associated with this tectonic setting. To constrain these forces, we use the latest plate kinematic reconstructions, while balancing horizontal gravitational stresses, plate boundary forces and the plate's interaction with the underlying mantle. The contribution of dynamic topography to horizontal gravitational stresses is based on recent mantle convection studies. We model intraplate stresses and compare them with the strain observations. We find that slab pull, horizontal gravitational stresses and transform shear tractions in general acted with the same orientation as the absolute motion of the African plate 75 Ma. Both the balance between these three and the other, resistive, forces, and the fit to strain observations require the net slab pull, as experienced by the plate, to be low, pointing to the absence of a mature continuous Neotethys subduction zone at the time. This corresponds well to reconstructions of micro-continents interfering with the Neotethyan subduction.

We aim to better understand the overriding plate deformation during the megathrust earthquake cycle. We estimate the spatial patterns of interseismic GNSS velocities in South America, Southeast Asia, and northern Japan and the associated uncertainties due to data gaps and velocity uncertainties. The interseismic velocities with respect to the overriding plate generally decrease with distance from the trench with a steep gradient up to a “hurdle”, beyond which the gradient is distinctly lower and velocities are small. The hurdle is located 500–1000 km away from the trench, for the trench-perpendicular velocity component, and either at the same distance or closer for the trench-parallel component. Significant coseismic displacements were observed beyond these hurdles during the 2010 Maule, 2004 Sumatra-Andaman, and 2011 Tohoku earthquakes. We hypothesize that both the interseismic hurdle and the coseismic response result from a mechanical contrast in the overriding plate. We test our hypothesis using physically consistent, generic, three-dimensional finite element models of the earthquake cycle. Our models show a response similar to the interseismic and coseismic observations for a compliant near-trench overriding plate and an at least 5 times stiffer overriding plate beyond the contrast. The model results suggest that hurdles are more prominently expressed in observations near strongly locked megathrusts. Previous studies inferred major tectonic or geological boundaries and seismological contrasts located close to the observed hurdles in the studied overriding plates. The compliance contrast probably results from thermal, compositional and thickness contrasts and might cause the observed focusing of smaller-scale deformation like backthrusting.

Geodetic data provide an opportunity to improve our understanding of the processes and parameters controlling the dynamics of deformation during the earthquake cycle at subduction zones. However, the observations contain noise and are temporally and spatially sparse, whereas dynamical models are unequivocally imperfect. Also, the relative contributions from various drivers of surface deformation are poorly constrained by independent observations. Some drivers may be static or vary slowly in time (e.g., plate motion), whilst others vary significantly during the earthquake cycle (e.g., viscoelastic relaxation). Data assimilation combines prior estimates of dynamical models, with the likelihood of observations into posterior estimates of the state evolution and time-independent parameters of a physical process. We explore the usefulness of data assimilation by using a particle filter to estimate the (spatially variable) elastic thickness of the overriding plate and the extent of the locked zone. We assimilate vertical interseismic surface displacements into a 2D elastic flexural model. The particle filter uses a Monte Carlo approach to represent the state probability distribution by a finite number of realizations (“particles”). We use sequential importance resampling to preserve particles statistically close to the observations and duplicate and perturb them. Synthetic experiments demonstrate that the particle filter effectively estimates 1D elastic thickness from synthetic observations. However, elastic thickness estimates for models with a landward increase in plate thickness show larger uncertainty near the coast as the sensitivity of surface displacements reduces with increasing plate thickness. Interestingly, the effectiveness of the elastic thickness estimation is highly sensitive to network aperture, including GPS/A. Assimilation of interseismic vertical velocities prior to the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake yields estimates of upper plate thickness that agree with previous studies. However, results of the locked zone extent are not as expected, which could be due to missing physics in the relatively conceptual model. These results demonstrate the potential of the particle filter to better understand the geodynamic process parameters of the earthquake cycle at subduction zones.

A devastating tsunami struck Palu Bay in the wake of the 28 September 2018 M$_{\mathrm{w}}=7.5$ Palu earthquake (Sulawesi, Indonesia). With a predominantly strike-slip mechanism, the question remains whether this unexpected tsunami was generated by the earthquake itself, or rather by earthquake-induced landslides. In this study we examine the tsunami potential of the co-seismic deformation. To this end, we present a novel geodetic dataset of GPS and multiple SAR-derived displacement fields to estimate a 3D co-seismic surface deformation field. The data reveal a number of fault bends, conforming to our interpretation of the tectonic setting as a transtensional basin. Using a Bayesian framework, we provide robust finite fault solutions of the co-seismic slip distribution, incorporating several scenarios of tectonically feasible fault orientations below the bay. These finite fault scenarios involve large co-seismic uplift (~2 m) below the bay due to thrusting on a restraining fault bend that connects the offshore continuation of two parallel onshore fault segments. With the co-seismic displacement estimates as input we simulate a number of tsunami cases. For most locations for which video-derived tsunami waveforms are available our models provide a qualitative fit to leading wave arrival times and polarity. The modeled tsunamis explain most of the observed runup. We conclude that co-seismic deformation was the main driver behind the tsunami that followed the Palu earthquake. Our unique geodetic dataset constrains vertical motions of the sea floor, and sheds new light on the tsunamigenesis of strike-slip faults in transtensional basins.

Most of the seismic moment release of the complex earthquake sequence beneath the South Sandwich Islands occurred on the central part of the SS megathrust. Significant aftershock activity indicates that the central and southern megathrust was subsequently activated, i.e., where young South America lithosphere is subducted. Seismic activity thus seems to have been restricted by the lateral termination in the south of the SS Trench.   Relatively little energy release occurred on the northern part of the megathrust. It was hypothesized by Govers and Wortel (2005) that here the South America slab breaks away from the surface part of the plate at the active STEP. Geochemical observations and earthquake P-axes orientations do not seem to agree with the hypothesis and we investigate the cause.   We show results of new physical analog lab models that aim to elucidate what controls the geometry of the lithospheric STEP Fault. We study lithospheric tearing in the process of STEP evolution, which is dynamically driven by the buoyancy of the subducting slab. In our experiments, the lithosphere as well as asthenosphere are viscoelastic media in a free subduction setup. A stress-dependent rheology plays a major role in localization of strain in tearing processes of lithosphere such as slab break-off. The results show that the highly curved northern plate boundary is a STEP Fault following from lithospheric tearing at a depth of ~100km. This is a modification of the original STEP model of Govers and Wortel (2005). This is consistent with available observations along the northern Sandwich plate boundary, and likely exists in other STEP regions. The region’s largest recorded event, the 1929 Mw 8.3 earthquake, may reflect horizontal extension perpendicular to the STEP fault, which is also expected based on our experiments.

Plate boundary deformation zones represent a challenge in terms of understanding their underlying geodynamic drivers. Active deformation is well constrained by GNSS observations in the SW Balkans, Greece and W Turkey, and is characterized by variable extension and strike slip in an overall context of slow convergence of the Nubia plate relative to stable Eurasia. Diverse, and all potentially viable, forces have been proposed as the cause of the observed surface deformation, e.g., asthenospheric flow, horizontal gravitational stresses (HGSs) from lateral variations in gravitational potential energy, and rollback of the Hellenic slab. We use Bayesian inference to constrain the relative contribution of the proposed driving and resistive regional forces. Our models are spherical 2D finite element models representing vertical lithospheric averages. In addition to regional plate boundaries, the models include well-constrained fault zones like north and south branches of the North Anatolian Fault, Gulf of Corinth and faults bounding the Menderes Massif. Boundary conditions represent geodynamic processes: (1) far-field relative plate motions (2) resistive fault tractions (3) HGSs mainly from lateral variations in topography and Moho topology (4) slab pull and trench suction at subduction zones. The magnitude of each of these is a parameter in a Bayesian analysis of the models in the context of horizontal GNSS velocities. The search yields a probability distribution over all parameters, allowing us to determine mean/median parameter values, robustly estimate parameter uncertainties, and identify tradeoffs. Significant trench suction forces from the Hellenic slab act on the overriding Aegean Sea, including along the Pliny-Strabo STEP Fault. Resistive tractions on most plate boundaries and faults are low. The best-fitting models compare well with paleomagnetic rotations and fault slip rates from previous studies.

Geodetic observations after large subduction earthquakes reflect multiple postseismic processes, including megathrust relocking. What the timing of relocking is, and how well observations constrain it, is unclear. It has been inferred to explain some observed landward motion that occurs within months. It has also been considered unable to explain other, greater landward motion, including off the coast of Japan beginning weeks after the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, which is attributed to postseismic relaxation. We use generic, 3D numerical models to show that relocking, particularly of the shallow interface, is needed for postseismic relaxation to produce landward motion on the tip of the overriding plate. We argue that this finding is consistent with previous simulations that implicitly relock the megathrust where afterslip is not included, that the Tohoku megathrust thus relocked within less than two months of the earthquake, and that the shallow megathrust probably behaves as a true, unstably sliding asperity.

We aim to better understand the spatial distribution of interseismic overriding plate deformation at and near subduction zones. To this end, we analyze horizontal GNSS velocities in South America, southeast Asia, and northern Japan, computing and interpolating local trench-normal and -parallel velocity components. Velocities generally decrease with distance from the trench with a steep gradient up to a “hurdle”, beyond which the gradient is distinctly lower and velocities are near-zero. The hurdle is located 500–1000 km away from the trench for the trench-perpendicular component and either at the same distance or closer for the trench-parallel. In contrast, significant displacements during large megathrust earthquakes are generally observed beyond the hurdle. To test our hypothesis that the hurdle results from a lateral contrast in overriding plate compliance, we use cyclic three-dimensional finite element models . Our results are consistent with the observed interseismic velocity gradients and far-field coseismic displacement. The gradient in modeled trench-perpendicular velocities depends on the location of the contrast and on the plate compliance on both sides. Trench-parallel velocities have a progressively shallower gradient with distance from the trench and only depend on the near-trench modulus. The inferred contrast probably results from thermal, compositional and thickness contrasts. This interpretation is consistent with the presence, close to the observed hurdle, of major tectonic or geological boundaries separating the plate margin from a distinct, and likely less compliant, plate interior. Stress accumulation on the model’s locked megathrust patches is hardly affected by the distance to the contrast.