Abstract
The damage potential of a hurricane is widely considered to depend more
strongly on an integrated measure of the hurricane wind field, such as
Integrated Kinetic Energy (IKE), than a point-based wind measure, such
as maximum sustained wind speed (Vmax). Recent work has demonstrated
that minimum sea level pressure (MSLP) is also an integrated measure of
the wind field. This study investigates how well historical continental
US hurricane damage is predicted by MSLP compared to both Vmax and IKE
for continental United States hurricane landfalls for the period
1988–2020. We first show for the entire North Atlantic basin that MSLP
is much better correlated with IKE (rrank = 0.50) than Vmax (rrank =
0.26). We then show that continental US hurricane normalized damage is
better predicted by MSLP (rrank = 0.81) than either Vmax (rrank = 0.65)
or IKE (rrank = 0.68). For Georgia to Maine hurricane landfalls
specifically, MSLP and IKE show similar levels of skill at predicting
damage, whereas Vmax provides effectively no predictive power.
Conclusions for IKE extend to power dissipation as well, as the two
quantities are highly correlated because wind radii closely follow a
Modified Rankine vortex. The physical relationship of MSLP to IKE and
power dissipation is discussed. In addition to better representing
damage, MSLP is also much easier to measure via aircraft or surface
observations than either Vmax or IKE, and it is already routinely
estimated operationally. We conclude that MSLP is an ideal metric for
characterizing hurricane damage risk.