Estimating the occurrence of geomagnetic activity using the
Hilbert-Huang transform and extreme value theory
Abstract
In this paper extreme value theory (EVT) has been used to estimate the
return levels for geomagnetic activity based on the aa index. The aa
index is the longest, continuously recorded, geomagnetic dataset (from
1868 - Present). This long, 150 year, dataset is an ideal candidate for
extreme value analysis. However the data are not independent and
identically distributed as required for EVT since they are impacted by
the approximately 11 year solar cycle. The Hilbert-Huang Transform has
been used to identify the solar cycle component in the data and the data
has been split into solar maximum and minimum times. In these two
regimes the generalised extreme value distribution has been fit to the
datasets. These have also been combined for an estimate of the overall
return times. The results suggest that the largest event in the database
(March 1989) is a one in 25 year event. However, considering separate
solar maximum and minimum times has a large impact on the return times.
During solar minimum conditions the return time of the March 1989 event
is 130 years. This suggests that the occurrence of extreme space weather
events is conditionally dependent on where in the Solar Cycle we are.