Droughts, Pluvials, and Wet Season Timing across the Chao Phraya River
Basin: a 254-Year Monthly Reconstruction from Tree Rings and δ18O
Abstract
Water system operations require subannual streamflow data—e.g.,
monthly or weekly—that are not readily achievable with conventional
streamflow reconstructions from annual tree rings. This mismatch is
particularly relevant to highly seasonal rivers such as Thailand’s Chao
Phraya. Here, we combine tree ring width and oxygen isotope (δ18O) from
Southeast Asia to produce 254-year, monthly-resolved reconstructions for
all four major tributaries of the Chao Phraya. From the reconstructions,
we derive subannual streamflow indices to examine past hydrological
droughts and pluvials, and find coherence and heterogeneity in their
histories. The monthly resolution reveals the spatiotemporal variability
in wet season timing, caused by interactions between early summer
typhoons, monsoon rains, catchment location, and topography.
Monthly-resolved reconstructions, like the ones presented here, not only
broaden our understanding of past hydroclimatic variability, but also
provide data that are functional to water management and climate-risk
analyses, a significant improvement over annual reconstructions.