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Ensemble-Based Assimilation of Satellite All-Sky Microwave Radiances Improves Intensity and Rainfall Predictions for Hurricane Harvey (2017)
  • +11
  • Yunji Zhang,
  • Scott B Sieron,
  • Yinghui Lu,
  • Xingchao Chen,
  • Robert G Nystrom,
  • Masashi Minamide,
  • Man-Yau Chan,
  • Christopher M Hartman,
  • Zhu Yao,
  • James H. Ruppert,
  • Atsushi Okazaki,
  • Steven J Greybush,
  • Eugene E Clothiaux,
  • Fuqing Zhang
Yunji Zhang
The Pennsylvania State University, The Pennsylvania State University

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Scott B Sieron
I.M. Systems Group Inc., I.M. Systems Group Inc.
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Yinghui Lu
Nanjing University, Nanjing University
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Xingchao Chen
The Pennsylvania State University, The Pennsylvania State University
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Robert G Nystrom
NCAR, NCAR
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Masashi Minamide
The University of Tokyo, The University of Tokyo
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Man-Yau Chan
The Pennsylvania State University, The Pennsylvania State University
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Christopher M Hartman
The Pennsylvania State University, The Pennsylvania State University
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Zhu Yao
The Pennsylvania State University, The Pennsylvania State University
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James H. Ruppert
The University of Oklahoma, The University of Oklahoma
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Atsushi Okazaki
Hirosaki University, Hirosaki University
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Steven J Greybush
The Pennsylvania State University, The Pennsylvania State University
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Eugene E Clothiaux
The Pennsylvania State University, The Pennsylvania State University
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Fuqing Zhang
The Pennsylvania State University, The Pennsylvania State University
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Abstract

Ensemble-based data assimilation of radar observations across inner-core regions of tropical cyclones (TCs) in tandem with satellite all-sky infrared radiances across the TC domain improves TC track and intensity forecasts. This study further investigates potential enhancements in TC track, intensity, and rainfall forecasts via assimilation of all-sky microwave radiances using Hurricane Harvey (2017) as an example. Assimilating GPM constellation all-sky microwave radiances in addition to GOES-16 all-sky infrared radiances reduces the forecast errors in the TC track, rapid intensification, and peak intensity compared to assimilating all-sky infrared radiances alone, including a 24-hour increase in forecast lead-time for rapid intensification. Assimilating all-sky microwave radiances also improves Harvey’s hydrometeor fields, which leads to improved forecasts of rainfall after Harvey’s landfall. This study indicates that avenues exist for producing more accurate forecasts for TCs using available yet underutilized data, leading to better warnings of and preparedness for TC-associated hazards in the future.
28 Dec 2021Published in Geophysical Research Letters volume 48 issue 24. 10.1029/2021GL096410