Distributed Flashiness-Intensity-Duration-Frequency products over the
conterminous US
Abstract
Effective flash flood forecasting and risk communication are imperative
for mitigating the impacts of flash floods. However, the current
forecasting of flash flood occurrence and magnitude largely depends on
forecasters’ expertise. An emerging
flashiness-intensity-duration-frequency (F-IDF) product is anticipated
to facilitate forecasters by quantifying the frequency and magnitude of
an imminent flash flood event. To make this concept usable, we develop
two distributed F-IDF products across the contiguous US, utilizing both
a Machine Learning (ML) approach and a physics-based hydrologic
simulation approach that can be applied at ungaged pixels. Specifically,
we explored 20 common ML methods and interpreted their predictions using
the Shapley Additive exPlanations method. For the hydrologic simulation,
we applied the operational flash flood forecast framework – EF5/CREST.
It is found that: (1) both CREST and ML depict similar flash flood hot
spots across the CONUS; (2) The ML approach outperforms the CREST-based
approach, with the drainage area, air temperature, channel slope,
potential evaporation, soil erosion identified as the five most
important factors; (3) The CREST-based approach exhibits high model bias
in regions characterized by dam/reservoir regulation, urbanization, or
mild slopes. We discuss two application use cases for these two
products. The CREST-based approach, with its dynamic streamflow
predictions, can be integrated into the existing real-time flash flood
forecast system to provide event-based forecasts of the frequency and
intensity of floods at multiple durations. On the other hand, the
ML-based approach, which is a static measure, can be integrated into a
flash flood risk assessment framework for urban planners.