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A stochastic view of the 2020 Elazığ Mw 6.8 earthquake
  • +2
  • Théa Ragon,
  • Mark Simons,
  • Quentin Bletery,
  • Olivier Cavalié,
  • Eric J. Fielding
Théa Ragon
California Institute of Technology

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Mark Simons
Caltech
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Quentin Bletery
Université Côte d'Azur, IRD, CNRS, Observatoire de la Côte d'Azur, Geoazur
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Olivier Cavalié
Université Côte d'Azur, IRD, CNRS, Observatoire de la Côte d'Azur, Geoazur
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Eric J. Fielding
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Caltech
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Abstract

Until the Mw 6.8 Elazığ earthquake ruptured the central portion of the East Anatolian Fault (EAF) on January 24, 2020, the region had only experienced moderate magnitude (Mw 6.2) earthquakes over the last century. Here, we use geodetic data to constrain a model of subsurface fault slip. We adopt an unregularized Bayesian sampling approach relying solely on physically justifiable prior information and account for uncertainties in both the assumed elastic structure and fault geometry. The rupture of the Elazığ earthquake was bilateral, with two primary disconnected regions of slip. This rupture pattern may be controlled by structural complexity. Both the Elazığ and 2010 Mw 6.1 Kovancılar events ruptured portions of the central EAF that are believed to be coupled during interseismic periods, and the Palu segment is the last portion of the EAF showing a large deficit of fault slip which has not yet ruptured in the last 145 years.