Evaluation and Comparison of the GWR Merged Precipitation and
Multi-Source Weighted-Ensemble Precipitation based on High-density Gauge
Measurement.
Abstract
Accurate estimation of precipitation in both space and time is essential
for hydrological research. We compared multi-source weighted ensemble
precipitation (MSWEP) with multi-source fused satellite precipitation
(CHIRPS) based on high-density rain gauge precipitation observations in
the Taihu Lake basin. We proposed a new merge precipitation algorithm
GWRMP based on the geographically weighted regression (GWR) method.
GWRMP corrects the bias of MSWEP by using high-density rain gauge
precipitation to address the common problem of daily precipitation
underestimation in MSWEP. The large-scale spatial coverage of the water
surface in this region leads to the uneven distribution of rain gauges
on the lake. There are differences in the descriptive ability of the
three spatial precipitation types, MSWEP, GWRMP, and IDW, for spatial
and temporal precipitation information in the Taihu Lake basin. A
comparison shows that GWRMP has a significant advantage in obtaining the
spatial and temporal variability of precipitation in areas with complex
topographic conditions. GWRMP compensates the problem of underestimation
of precipitation by MSWEP (10% to 25%), and avoids the risk of the
high dependence of IDW on rain gauges, and improves the accuracy of
spatial and temporal precipitation in large lake areas with sparse
distribution of rain gauges (Pbias limited to 10%). GWRMP improved the
estimation for different rainfall intensities in the Taihu Lake basin,
especially in the mid-level rainfall and above precipitation
frequencies. Compared with IDW and MSWEP, GWRMP is more suitable for
intense precipitation monitoring and storm flood frequency study in the
basin. Therefore, GWRMP is a better choice for spatial and temporal
estimation of precipitation in the Taihu Lake basin. The GWRMP algorithm
can be applied to other regions with unevenly spaced high-density rain
gauges.