Abstract
Persistent warming and water cycle change due to anthropogenic climate
change modifies the temperature and salinity distribution of the ocean
over time. This ‘forced’ signal of temperature and salinity change is
often masked by the background internal variability of the climate
system. Analysing temperature and salinity change in watermass-based
coordinate systems has been proposed as an alternative to traditional
Eulerian (e.g., fixed-depth, zonally-averaged) co-ordinate systems. The
impact of internal variability is thought to be reduced in watermass
co-ordinates, enabling a cleaner separation of the forced signal from
background variability - or a higher ‘signal-to-noise’ ratio. Building
on previous analyses comparing Eulerian and water-mass-based
one-dimensional coordinates, here we recast two-dimensional co-ordinate
systems - temperature-salinity (𝑇 − 𝑆), latitude-longitude and
latitude-depth - onto a directly comparable equal-volume framework. We
compare the internal variability, or ‘noise’ in temperature and salinity
between these remapped two-dimensional co-ordinate systems in a 500 year
pre-industrial control run from a CMIP6 climate model. We find that the
median internal variability is lowest (and roughly equivalent) in 𝑇 − 𝑆
and latitude-depth space, compared with latitude-longitude co-ordinates.
A large proportion of variability in 𝑇 − 𝑆 and latitude-depth space can
be attributed to processes which operate over a timescale greater than
10 years. Overall, the signal-to-noise ratio in 𝑇 − 𝑆 co-ordinates is
roughly comparable to latitude-depth co-ordinates, but is greater in
regions of high historical temperature change. Conversely,
latitude-depth co-ordinates have greater signal-to-noise ratio in
regions of historical salinity change. Thus, we conclude that the
climatic temperature change signal can be more robustly identified in
watermass-co-ordinates.