Open data and open source software for the development and validation of
multi-model monthly-to-seasonal probabilistic forecasts for the Pacific
Islands
Abstract
In this paper, we leverage open data and open-source software to develop
flexible, probabilistic monthly and seasonal (three-month) precipitation
forecasts for the Pacific region. We use data from a Multi-Model
Ensemble (MME), i.e. a large ensemble of state-of-the-art General
Circulation Models (GCMs) and make use of recent developments in the
Python open-source software ecosystem allowing the processing of large
datasets on standard consumer grade laptops or desktop computers, of
particular relevance in the Pacific context. The validation of the
deterministic MME forecasts against reanalysis and observational
products shows good performance, and confirms that an MME outperforms
even the best single GCM. We show that the MME’s forecast performance is
modulated by the phases and characteristics of the El Nino Southern
Oscillation (ENSO), with the longitude of the maximum Sea Surface
Temperature anomalies playing a major role. We suggest that these
findings could be used to provide additional confidence information
along with the operational MME forecasts. Validation metrics for the
probability of drought conditions, alternatively defined as seasonal
rainfall accumulations below the climatological 1 tercile (percentile
33) or 1st quartile (percentile 25) show that the MME forecasts are
reliable enough for most of the region. We provide an example of how
this probabilistic forecast information can be integrated with real-time
rainfall monitoring, in order to highlight areas in the tropical Pacific
region which are at risk of water stress (i.e., where rainfall has
recently been in deficit and forecasts indicate a high likelihood of dry
conditions to persist or worsen).