A new temporally flow-dependent EDA estimating background errors in the
new Copernicus European Regional Re-Analysis (CERRA)
Abstract
A new augmented Ensemble of Data Assimilations (EDA) technique to
estimate background error covariances (B-matrix) has been developed for
the Copernicus European Regional Re-Analysis (CERRA). The B-matrix is
modelled on a bi-Fourier limited area model. Background errors are
assumed isotropic, homogeneous and non-separable. Linearised geostrophic
and hydrostatic balances are incorporated as multivariate relationships,
coupling vorticity and geopotential extended to mass-wind and specific
humidity fields via the f-plane approximation. The B-matrix is estimated
by a new 10-member CERRA-EDA system, temporally tethered to real-time
meteorological situations. The EDA forecast differences comprise two
main pools: seasonal and daily. The seasonal component is pre-prepared
at reanalysis-resolution (5.5km). The new augmentation governs real-time
mixture of winter and summer differences. The daily component is an 11km
moving 2.5 day average. B-matrix re-estimation occurs every 2 days, with
a fixed split of 80-20\% seasonal-daily. We consider a
case study to illustrate the potential of CERRA-EDA to estimate weather
regime change. The most influential factors are temporal evolution of
spatial observation coverage, and varying the seasonal-daily split.
Background error statistics, improvements in analysis and forecast skill
scores and overall assimilation system performance are shown and
discussed.