Lifecycle of Major Sudden Stratospheric Warmings in the Southern
Hemisphere from a Multi-Millennial GCM Simulation
Abstract
Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (SSWs) are rare in the Southern Hemisphere
(SH), making it difficult to study possible precursors or subsequent
impacts. Using a multi-millennial coupled climate model simulation
producing 161 SSWs in the SH, we present a detailed study of their
lifecycle. We show that SH SSWs are predominantly displacement events
forced by wave-1 planetary waves, and that the surface signature similar
to the negative phase of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is detectable
up to two months before the onset date, but there is a tendency for a
transition from wave-1 before to zonally symmetric anomalies after
onset. We identify a strong weakening of the Amundsen Sea Low as one of
the most prominent precursors, which weakens the climatological wave-2
and wave-3 stationary waves and strengthens wave-1 forcing. Compared to
their northern counterparts, SH SSWs generally have a longer timescale,
and while there is evidence of pre-onset forcing related to tropical sea
surface temperatures, the Indian Ocean Dipole is more important than the
El Niño Southern Oscillation.