Deep Learning, Explained: Fundamentals, Explainability, and
Bridgeability to Process-based Modelling
Abstract
Recent breakthroughs in artificial intelligence (AI), and particularly
in deep learning (DL), have created tremendous excitement and
opportunities in the earth and environmental sciences communities. To
leverage these new ‘data-driven’ technologies, however, one needs to
understand the fundamental concepts that give rise to DL and how they
differ from ‘process-based’, mechanistic modelling. This paper revisits
those fundamentals and addresses 10 questions often posed by earth and
environmental scientists with the aid of a real-world modelling
experiment. The overarching objective is to contribute to a future of
AI-assisted earth and environmental sciences where DL models can (1)
embrace the typically ignored knowledge base available, (2) function
credibly in ‘true’ out-of-sample prediction, and (3) handle
non-stationarity in earth and environmental systems. Comparing and
contrasting earth and environmental problems with prominent AI
applications, such as playing chess and trading in stock markets,
provides critical insights for better directing future research in this
field.