Three-dimensional clustering in the characterization of spatiotemporal
drought dynamics: cluster size filter and drought indicator threshold
optimization
Abstract
In its three-dimensional (3-D) characterization, drought is approached
as an event whose spatial extent changes over time. Each drought event
has an onset and end time, a location, a magnitude, and a spatial
trajectory. These characteristics help to analyze and describe how
drought develops in space and time, i.e., drought dynamics.
Methodologies for 3-D characterization of drought include a 3-D
clustering technique to extract the drought events from the
hydrometeorological data. The application of the clustering method
yields small ‘artifact’ droughts. These small clusters are removed from
the analysis with the use of a cluster size filter. However, according
to the literature, the filter parameters are usually set arbitrarily, so
this study concentrated on a method to calculate the optimal cluster
size filter for the 3-D characterization of drought. The effect of
different drought indicator thresholds to calculate drought is also
analyzed. The approach was tested in South America with data from the
Latin American Flood and Drought Monitor (LAFDM) for 1950–2017.
Analysis of the spatial trajectories and characteristics of the most
extreme droughts is also included. Calculated droughts are compared with
information reported at a country scale and a reasonably good match is
found.