Geophysical observations indicate that temporal pore fluid pressure changes correlate with slow slip events (SSEs) occurring along the shallow portion of the Hikurangi margin and in different subduction zones. These fluctuations in pore fluid pressure are attributed to fluid migration before and during SSEs, which may modulate SSE occurrence. To examine the effect of pore fluid pressure changes on SSE generation, we develop numerical models in which periodic pore-pressure perturbations are applied to a stably sliding, rate-strengthening fault. By varying the physical characteristics of the pore-pressure perturbations (amplitude, characteristic length and period), we find models that reproduce shallow Hikurangi SSE properties (duration, magnitude, slip, recurrence) and SSE moments and durations from different subduction zones. The stress drops of modeled SSEs range from ~20-120 kPa while the amplitudes of pore-pressure perturbations is several MPa, broadly consistent with those inferred from observations. Our results indicate that large permeability values of 10-14 to 10-10 m2 are needed to reproduce the observed SSE properties. Such high values could be due to transient and localized increases in fault zone permeability in the shear zone where SSEs occur. Our results suggest that SSEs may arise on faults in rate-strengthening frictional conditions subject to pore-pressure perturbations.

Detecting crustal deformation during transient deformation events at offshore subduction zones remains challenging. The spatiotemporal evolution of slow slip events (SSEs) on the offshore Hikurangi subduction zone, New Zealand, during February–July 2019, is revealed through a time-dependent inversion of onshore and offshore geodetic data that also account for spatially varying elastic crustal properties. Our model is constrained by seafloor pressure time series (as a proxy for vertical seafloor deformation), onshore continuous Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) data, and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) displacements. Large GNSS displacements onshore and uplift of the seafloor (10-33 mm) require peak slip during the event of 150 to >200 mm at 6-12 km depth offshore Hawkes Bay and Gisborne, comparable to maximum slip observed during previous seafloor pressure deployments at north Hikurangi. The onshore and offshore data reveal a complex evolution of the SSE, over a period of months. Seafloor pressure data indicates the slow slip may have persisted longer near the trench than suggested by onshore GNSS stations in both the Gisborne and Hawkes Bay regions. Seafloor pressure data also reveal up-dip migration of SSE slip beneath Hawke Bay occurred over a period of a few weeks. The SSE source region appears to coincide with locations of the March 1947 Mw 7.0–7.1 tsunami earthquake offshore Gisborne and estimated Great earthquake rupture sources from paleoseismic investigations offshore Hawkes Bay, suggesting that the shallow megathrust at north and central Hikurangi is capable of both seismic and aseismic rupture.

The 2016 M7.8 Kaikōura earthquake is one of the most complex earthquakes in recorded history, with significant rupture of at least 21 crustal faults. Using a matched-filter detection routine, precise cross-correlation pick corrections, and accurate location and relocation techniques, we construct a catalog of 33,328 earthquakes between 2009 and 2020 on and adjacent to the faults that ruptured in the Kaikōura earthquake. We also compute focal mechanisms for 1,755 of the earthquakes used as templates. Using this catalog we reassess the rupture pathway of the Kaikōura earthquake. In particular we show that: (1) the earthquake nucleated on the Humps Fault; (2) there is a likely linking offshore reverse fault between the southern fault system and the Papatea Fault, which could explain the anomalously high slip on the Papatea Fault; (3) the faults that ruptured in the 2013 Cook Strait sequence were reactivated by the Kaikōura earthquake and may have played a role in the termination of the earthquake; and (4) no seismicity on an underlying subduction interface is observed beneath almost all of the ruptured region suggesting that if deformation did occur on the plate interface then it occurred aseismically and did not play a significant role in generating co-seismic ground motion.