loading page

Assessing the global influence of ENSO on flood risk through 1600 years of simulations
  • Lenin Del Rio Amador,
  • Mathieu Boudreault,
  • David A. Carozza
Lenin Del Rio Amador
Université du Québec à Montréal

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

Author Profile
Mathieu Boudreault
Université du Québec à Montréal
Author Profile
David A. Carozza
Université du Québec à Montréal
Author Profile

Abstract

El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is often considered as a source of long-term predictability for extreme events via its teleconnection patterns. However, given that its characteristic cycle varies from two to seven years, it is difficult to obtain statistically significant conclusions based on observational periods spanning only a few decades. To overcome this, we apply the global flood risk modeling framework developed by Carozza and Boudreault to an equivalent of 1600 years of bias-corrected GCM outputs. The results show substantial anomalies in flood occurrences and impacts for El Niño and La Niña when compared to the all-year baseline. We were able to obtain a larger global coverage of statistically significant results than previous studies limited to observational data. Asymmetries in anomalies for both ENSO phases show a larger global influence of El Niño than La Niña on flood hazard and risk.