Abstract
Accurate state estimation of the high-dimensional, chaotic Earth
atmosphere marks a Sisyphean task, yet is indispensable for initiating
weather forecast and gauging climate variability. While much effort is
devoted to assimilating observations and forecasts to infer weather
state, the inherent low-dimensional statistical structure in atmospheric
circulation, shaped by geophysical laws and geographic boundaries, is
underutilized as informative prior for state inference, or as reference
for assessing representative of existing observations and planning new
ones. We realize these potential by learning climatological distribution
from climate reanalysis/simulation, using deep generative model. For a
case study of estimating 2 m temperature spatial patterns, the learned
distribution faithfully reproduces climatology statistics. A combination
of the learned climatological prior with few station observations yields
strong posterior of spatial pattern estimates, which are spatially
coherent, faithful and adaptive to observation constraints, and
uncertainty-aware. This allows us to evaluate each observation’s value
in reducing state estimation uncertainty, and guide optimal observation
network design by pinpointing the most informative sites. Our study
showcases how generative models can extract and utilize information
produced in the chaotic evolution of climate system.