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Learning to infer weather states using partial observations
  • +9
  • Jie Chao,
  • Baoxiang Pan,
  • Quanliang Chen,
  • Shangshang Yang,
  • Jingnan Wang,
  • congyi nai,
  • Yue Zheng,
  • Xichen Li,
  • Huiling Yuan,
  • Xi Chen,
  • Bo Lu,
  • Ziniu Xiao
Jie Chao
Chengdu University of Information Technology
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Baoxiang Pan
Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Quanliang Chen
Plateau Atmosphere and Environment Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, College of Atmospheric Science,Chengdu University of Information Technology
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Shangshang Yang
Key Laboratory of Mesoscale Severe Weather Ministry of Education/School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University
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Jingnan Wang
College of Computer, National University of Defense Technology
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congyi nai
Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences
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Yue Zheng
ClusterTech Limited, Hong Kong
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Xichen Li
International Center for Climate and Environment Sciences, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences
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Huiling Yuan
Key Laboratory of Mesoscale Severe Weather/Ministry of Education, and School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China
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Xi Chen
Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences
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Bo Lu
National Climate Center, China Meterological Administration
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Ziniu Xiao
Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences
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Abstract

Accurate state estimation of the high-dimensional, chaotic Earth atmosphere marks a Sisyphean task, yet is indispensable for initiating weather forecast and gauging climate variability. While much effort is devoted to assimilating observations and forecasts to infer weather state, the inherent low-dimensional statistical structure in atmospheric circulation, shaped by geophysical laws and geographic boundaries, is underutilized as informative prior for state inference, or as reference for assessing representative of existing observations and planning new ones. We realize these potential by learning climatological distribution from climate reanalysis/simulation, using deep generative model. For a case study of estimating 2 m temperature spatial patterns, the learned distribution faithfully reproduces climatology statistics. A combination of the learned climatological prior with few station observations yields strong posterior of spatial pattern estimates, which are spatially coherent, faithful and adaptive to observation constraints, and uncertainty-aware. This allows us to evaluate each observation’s value in reducing state estimation uncertainty, and guide optimal observation network design by pinpointing the most informative sites. Our study showcases how generative models can extract and utilize information produced in the chaotic evolution of climate system.
18 Apr 2024Submitted to ESS Open Archive
19 Apr 2024Published in ESS Open Archive