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Strong linkage between observed daily precipitation extremes and anthropogenic emissions across the contiguous United States
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  • Nanditha J. S.,
  • Gabriele Villarini,
  • Hanbeen Kim,
  • Philippe Naveau
Nanditha J. S.
University of Iowa

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Gabriele Villarini
Princeton University
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Hanbeen Kim
Princeton University
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Philippe Naveau
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The results of probabilistic event attribution studies depend on the choice of the extreme value statistics used in the analysis, particularly with the arbitrariness in the selection of appropriate thresholds to define extremes. We bypass this issue by using the Extended Generalized Pareto Distribution (ExtGPD), which jointly models low precipitation with a generalized Pareto distribution and extremes with a different Pareto tail, to conduct daily precipitation attribution across the contiguous United States (CONUS). We apply the ExtGPD to 12 general circulation models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 and compare counterfactual scenarios with and without anthropogenic emissions. Observed precipitation by the Climate Prediction Centre is used for evaluating the GCMs. We find that greenhouse gases rather than natural variability can explain the observed magnitude of extreme daily precipitation, especially in the temperate regions. Our results highlight an unambiguous linkage of anthropogenic emissions to daily precipitation extremes across CONUS.
18 Apr 2024Submitted to ESS Open Archive
19 Apr 2024Published in ESS Open Archive