Exploring the Relative Contribution of the MJO and ENSO to Midlatitude
Subseasonal Predictability
Abstract
Here we explore the relative contribution of the Madden-Julian
Oscillation (MJO) and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to midlatitude
subseasonal predictive skill of upper atmospheric circulation over the
North Pacific, using an inherently interpretable neural network applied
to pre-industrial control runs of the Community Earth System Model
version 2. We find that this interpretable network generally favors the
state of ENSO, rather than the MJO, to make correct predictions on a
range of subseasonal lead times and predictand averaging windows.
Moreover, the predictability of positive circulation anomalies over the
North Pacific is comparatively lower than that of their negative
counterparts, especially evident when the ENSO state is important.
However, when ENSO is in a neutral state, our findings indicate that the
MJO provides some predictive information, particularly for positive
anomalies. We identify three distinct evolutions of these MJO states,
offering fresh insights into opportune forecasting windows for MJO
teleconnections.