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Extreme Rainfall Trends in the United States of America
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  • Zuhayr Shahid Ishmam,
  • Robert V Rohli,
  • Rubayet Bin Mostafiz,
  • Carol J Friedland
Zuhayr Shahid Ishmam

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

Author Profile
Robert V Rohli
Department of Oceanography & Coastal Sciences, Louisiana State University, Coastal Studies Institute, Louisiana State University
Rubayet Bin Mostafiz
Department of Biological & Agricultural Engineering, LaHouse Research & Education Center, LSU AgCenter, Louisiana State University
Carol J Friedland
Coastal Studies Institute, Louisiana State University, Department of Biological & Agricultural Engineering, LaHouse Research & Education Center, LSU AgCenter, Louisiana State University

Abstract

The European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF)  fifth-generation reanalysis of the global climate (ERA5) and the Climate Hazards Croup InfraRed Precipitation with Station (CHIPPS) daily measurements are used to examine extreme rainfall (1981-2022) in the contiguous U.S.A. Linear spatiotemporal trends in indicators of extreme rainfall frequency, magnitude, and duration recommended by WMO, as identified by the TheiI-Sen slope estimate and its Mann Kendall significance (p < 0.05), are calculated. Temporal trends in the annual number of days with rainfall 20 mm (R20) are most significant in the Ohio Valley and in parts of Florida (increasing), and isolated parts of Texas, Oklahoma, elsewhere in the Southwest and West (decreasing). Annual frequency of days having 10 mm (R1O) shows similar spatiotemporal patterns, but with broader areas of decreasing trends in the southern Great Plains and Southwest. Annual trends in total rainfall on the 5% of the most precipitating days (R95P) increased significantly in parts of Florida and from Louisiana to Maine and decreased significantly across much of the Southwest. Annual trends in maximum five-day rainfall (Rx5day) increased significantly in parts of the Appalachians and other isolated pockets and decreased significantly in parts of the Southwest. Annual maximum number of consecutive dry days (CDD) increased significantly in parts of California and adjacent western U.S. and decreased significantly in much of the south-central U.S. Trends in annual maximum number of consecutive wet days (CWD) changed significantly only in isolated areas, with Colorado having the most significantly decreasing trends. The area having >2.5 mm day-1 of rainfall over a given meteorological season expanded for DJF and MAM but shrunk for SON, from the 1981-1990 to 2011-2022 periods. If such trends continue, floods, landslides, and droughts may intensify.
04 Mar 2024Submitted to ESS Open Archive
05 Mar 2024Published in ESS Open Archive