Uncertainty Quantification of a Machine Learning Subgrid-Scale
Parameterization for Atmospheric Gravity Waves
Abstract
Subgrid-scale processes, such as atmospheric gravity waves, play a
pivotal role in shaping the Earth’s climate but cannot be explicitly
resolved in climate models due to limitations on resolution. Instead,
subgrid-scale parameterizations are used to capture their effects.
Recently, machine learning has emerged as a promising approach to learn
parameterizations. In this study, we explore uncertainties associated
with a machine learning parameterization for atmospheric gravity waves.
Focusing on the uncertainties in the training process (parametric
uncertainty), we use an ensemble of neural networks to emulate an
existing gravity wave parameterization. We estimate both offline
uncertainties in raw neural network output and online uncertainties in
climate model output, after the neural networks are coupled. We find
that online parametric uncertainty contributes a significant source of
uncertainty in climate model output that must be considered when
introducing neural network parameterizations. This uncertainty
quantification provides valuable insights into the reliability and
robustness of machine learning-based gravity wave parameterizations,
thus advancing our understanding of their potential applications in
climate modeling.