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Causal links between sea-ice variability in the Barents-Kara Seas and oceanic and atmospheric drivers
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  • Jakob Dörr,
  • Marius Årthun,
  • David Docquier,
  • Camille Li,
  • Tor Eldevik
Jakob Dörr
University of Bergen

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Marius Årthun
Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen
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David Docquier
Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium
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Camille Li
University of Bergen
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Tor Eldevik
University of Bergen, Geophysical Institute
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The sea-ice cover in the Barents and Kara Seas (BKS) displays pronounced interannual variability. Both atmospheric and oceanic drivers have been found to influence sea-ice variability, but their relative strength and regional importance remain under debate. Here, we use the Liang-Kleeman information flow method to quantify the causal influence of oceanic and atmospheric drivers on the annual sea-ice cover in the BKS in the Community Earth System Model large ensemble and reanalysis. We find that atmospheric drivers dominate in the northern part, ocean heat transport dominates in the central and northeastern part, and local sea-surface temperature dominates in the southern part. Furthermore, the large-scale atmospheric circulation over the Nordic Seas drives ocean heat transport into the Barents Sea, which then influences sea ice. Under future sea-ice retreat, the atmospheric drivers are expected to become more important.
11 Jan 2024Submitted to ESS Open Archive
15 Jan 2024Published in ESS Open Archive