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“Fires of Unusual Size: Future of Extreme and Emerging Wildfires in a Warming United States (2020-2060)”
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  • Jilmarie Juarez Stephens,
  • Maxwell B Joseph,
  • Virginia Iglesias,
  • Ty A Tuff,
  • Adam L. Mahood,
  • Imtiaz Rangwala,
  • Jane Wolken,
  • Jennifer K. Balch
Jilmarie Juarez Stephens
University of Colorado Boulder

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Maxwell B Joseph
CIRES, University of Colorado Boulder
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Virginia Iglesias
University of Colorado Boulder
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Ty A Tuff
University of Colorado Boulder
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Adam L. Mahood
University of Colorado Boulder
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Imtiaz Rangwala
North Central Climate Adaptation Science Center
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Jane Wolken
North Central Climate Adaptation Science Center
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Jennifer K. Balch
University of Colorado Boulder
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Abstract

Observed increases in wildfire activity across the contiguous United States, which have occurred amid a warming climate and expanding residential footprint within flammable landscapes, illustrate the urgency of understanding near-future changes in fire regimes. Here, we use a statistical model including future projections of both human population distribution and atmospheric conditions from climate models to predict the number, size, and cumulative area burned by wildfires. We find an overall increase in both the number of fires (+56%) and total burned area (+60%) during 2020-2060 relative to a 1984-2019 baseline, as well as ubiquitous increases in area burned (+63%) by the largest fires. Additionally, we predict the emergence of observationally unprecedented fire frequency in eastern U.S. locations where wildfire was rare historically (+71%), and unprecedented increases in the size of the largest fires in the Western U.S. where fires were historically common—underscoring the need to prepare for more frequent and severe fire even in communities unaccustomed to them.
06 Dec 2023Submitted to ESS Open Archive
10 Dec 2023Published in ESS Open Archive