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Seasonal lake-to-air temperature transfer functions derived from an analysis of 1395 modern lakes: A tool for reconstructing air temperature from proxy-derived lake water temperature
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  • Alexa Terrazas,
  • Nathan Hwangbo,
  • Alexandrea J Arnold,
  • Robert N Ulrich,
  • Aradhna Tripati
Alexa Terrazas
Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, UCLA, Center for Diverse Leadership in Science, UCLA

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

Author Profile
Nathan Hwangbo
Department of Statistics, UCLA
Alexandrea J Arnold
Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, UCLA, Center for Diverse Leadership in Science, UCLA
Robert N Ulrich
Department of Earth, Planetary, and Space Sciences, Center for Diverse Leadership in Science, UCLA
Aradhna Tripati
Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, UCLA, Department of Earth, Planetary, and Space Sciences, Institute of the Environment and Sustainability, School of Earth Science, University of California, Center for Diverse Leadership in Science, UCLA, School of Earth Science, University of Bristol

Abstract

Lacustrine paleotemperature reconstructions are important for characterizing past temperature and hydroclimate change, validating multi-proxy reconstructions, and evaluating global climate models. In particular, lake water temperature is often derived from geochemical proxies–including clumped isotopes (Δ47), oxygen isotopes (δ18O), alkenone lipids (Uk’37), and GDGT compounds (TEX86). However, global climate models, constrained by resolution, computational demand, and cost, are designed to simulate large-scale processes, often at the expense of resolving lakes and simulating lake temperature. Consequently, this limitation complicates the comparison of climate model-simulated variables such as air temperature, with lake water temperature or with other proxy variables (e.g., pollen-derived air temperature), and necessitates use of a transfer function to relate lake temperature to air temperature. Previous work developed transfer functions to translate proxy-derived seasonal lake water temperature to mean annual air temperature using ground-based measurements from 88 lakes. In this study, we introduce new lake-to-air temperature transfer functions (for annual, spring-summer, spring, summer, and warmest month) that incorporate lake surface water temperature, and new variables including latitude and elevation, by analyzing climate reanalysis data and long-term satellite observations of surface temperatures for 1395 modern lakes via regression-based inverse modeling. With the use of multiple regression models and a dataset roughly 10 times larger, the error in predictions of mean annual air temperature is reduced by up to 48% compared to previous work. To demonstrate the impact of the new transfer functions, we reconstruct Pliocene-Pleistocene mean annual air temperature from Δ47-derived lake temperatures and compare estimates to model simulations for the Last Glacial Maximum and mid-Piacenzian warm period. The new transfer functions, with reduced error, should enable more accurate paleotemperature reconstructions from proxy-derived lake water temperature and allow for more comprehensive assessments of climate model skill.
09 Oct 2024Submitted to ESS Open Archive
15 Oct 2024Published in ESS Open Archive