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Strong El Niño events lead to robust multi-year ENSO predictability
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  • Nathan Lenssen,
  • Pedro DiNezio,
  • Lisa Goddard,
  • Clara Deser,
  • Yochanan Kushnir,
  • Simon Mason,
  • Matthew Newman,
  • Yuko M Okumura
Nathan Lenssen
Colorado School of Mines

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Pedro DiNezio
University of Colorado Boulder
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Lisa Goddard
Columbia University
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Clara Deser
National Center for Atmospheric Research
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Yochanan Kushnir
Columbia University
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Simon Mason
IRI Columbia University
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Matthew Newman
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Yuko M Okumura
University of Texas at Austin
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The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon – the dominant source of climate variability on seasonal to multi-year timescales – is predictable a few seasons in advance. Forecast skill at longer multi-year timescales has been found in a few models and forecast systems, but the robustness of this predictability across models has not been firmly established owing to the cost of running dynamical model predictions at longer lead times. In this study, we use a massive collection of multi-model hindcasts performed using model analogs to show that multi-year ENSO predictability is robust across models and arises predominantly due to skillful prediction of multi-year La Niña events following strong El Niño events.
28 Oct 2023Submitted to ESS Open Archive
30 Oct 2023Published in ESS Open Archive