Cropland and Population Exposure to Extreme Precipitation Events in
Central Asia Under Future Climate Change
Abstract
Central Asia (CA) is experiencing rapid warming, leading to more Extreme
precipitation events (EPEs). However, the anticipated changes in
cropland and population exposure to EPEs are still unexplored. In this
study, projected changes in EPEs characteristics, as well as cropland
and population exposure from EPEs are quantified using global climate
model simulations. Our findings reveal a significant increase in the
exposure of cropland and population to extreme precipitation over time.
Specifically, under the high-emission SSP5-8.5 future pathway, the
amount, frequency, intensity, and spatial extent of extreme
precipitation in CA are projected to considerably amplify, particularly
in the high mountain regions. Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, cropland
exposure in CA increases by 46.4%, with a total cropland exposure of
approximately 190.7 million km² expected between 2021 and 2100.
Additionally, under the SSP3-7.0 scenario, population exposure in CA
increases by 92.6%, resulting in a total population exposure of about
48.1 billion person-days during the same period. The future maximum
centers of exposure are concentrated over northern Kazakhstan and the
tri-border region of Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan. Notably,
the climate effect is more dominant than the other effects, whereas
changes in population effect contribute to the total change in
population exposure. Given the heterogeneous distribution of population
and cropland in CA, it is imperative for the countries in the region to
implement effective measures that harness extreme precipitation and cope
with the impacts of these extreme climate events.