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Spatially Resolved Temperature Response Functions to CO2 Emissions
  • Lyssa M Freese,
  • Arlene M. Fiore,
  • Noelle Eckley Selin
Lyssa M Freese
Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Corresponding Author:lyssamfreese@gmail.com

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Arlene M. Fiore
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Noelle Eckley Selin
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
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The ability to rapidly simulate the climate implications of a large number of CO2 emissions trajectories is helpful for implementing mitigation and adaptation policies. A key variable of interest is near-surface air temperature, which is approximately proportional to cumulative CO2 emissions. We take advantage of this relationship, diagnosing Green’s Functions for the spatial temperature response to CO2 emissions based on CMIP6 experiment data, creating an emulator that can be used across emissions scenarios to estimate local temperature responses. As compared to CMIP6 experiments, this approach captures the spatial temperature response with some limited accuracy in polar regions. It incorporates emissions path dependency and is useful for evaluating large ensembles of policy scenarios that are otherwise prohibitively expensive to simulate using earth system models. We apply this emulator to show differing local temperature responses when a global mean of 2ºC is reached and to varying trajectories with the same cumulative emissions.
17 Jul 2023Submitted to ESS Open Archive
20 Jul 2023Published in ESS Open Archive