Empirical Dynamic Modeling Reveals Complexity of Methane Fluxes in a
Temperate Salt Marsh
Abstract
Methane dynamics within salt marshes are complex because vegetation
types, temperature, oscillating water levels, and changes in salinity
and redox conditions influence CH4 production and emission. These
non-linear and complex interactions among variables affect the
traditionally expected functional relationships and present challenges
for interpretation and developing process-based models. We employ
empirical dynamic modeling (EDM) and convergent cross mapping (CCM) as a
novel approach for characterizing seasonal/multiday and diurnal CH4
dynamics by identifying causal variables, lags, and interconnections
among multiple biophysical variables within a temperate salt marsh using
five years of eddy covariance data. EDM/CCM is a nonparametric approach
capable of quantifying the coupling between variables while determining
time scales where variable interactions are most relevant. We found that
gross primary productivity, tidal creek dissolved oxygen, and
temperature were important for seasonal/multiday dynamics
(rho=0.73-0.80), while water level was most important for diurnal
dynamics during both the growing and dormancy phenoperiods (rho=0.72 and
0.56, respectively). Lags for top causal variables (gross primary
productivity, tidal creek dissolved oxygen, temperature, water level)
occurred between 1-5 weeks at the seasonal scale and 1-24 hours at the
diurnal scale. The EDM had high prediction capabilities for
intra-/inter-seasonal patterns and annual CH4 sums but with limitations
to represent large infrequent fluxes. Results highlight the importance
of non-linearity, causal drivers, lag times, and interconnections among
multiple biophysical variables that regulate CH4 fluxes in tidal
wetlands. This study presents a new dimension for analyzing CH4 fluxes,
which will prove helpful to test current paradigms in wetlands and other
ecosystems.