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Uncertainty reduction and environmental justice in air pollution epidemiology: the importance of minority representation
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  • Mariana Alifa,
  • Stefano Castruccio,
  • Diogo Bolster,
  • Mercedes A Bravo,
  • Paola Crippa
Mariana Alifa
University of Notre Dame

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Stefano Castruccio
University of Notre Dame
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Diogo Bolster
University of Notre Dame
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Mercedes A Bravo
Duke University
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Paola Crippa
University of Notre Dame
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Abstract

Ambient air pollution is an increasing threat to society, with rising numbers of adverse outcomes and exposure inequalities across the globe. Reducing uncertainty in health outcomes models and exposure disparity studies is therefore essential to develop policies effective in protecting the most affected places and populations. This study uses the concept of information entropy to study tradeoffs in mortality uncertainty reduction from increasing input data of air pollution versus health outcomes. We study a case scenario for short-term mortality from fine particulate matter (PM2.5) in North Carolina for 2001-2016, employing a case-crossover design with inputs from an individual-level mortality dataset and high-resolution gridded datasets of PM2.5 and weather covariates. We find a significant association between mortality and PM2.5, and the information tradeoffs indicate that in this case increasing information from mortality may reduce model uncertainty at a faster rate than increasing information from air pollution. We also find that Non-Hispanic Black (NHB) residents tend to live in relatively more polluted census tracts, and that the mean PM2.5 for NHB cases in the mortality model is significantly higher than that of Non-Hispanic White (NHW) cases. The distinct distribution of PM2.5 for NHB cases results in a relatively higher information value, and therefore faster uncertainty reduction, for new NHB cases introduced into the mortality model. This newfound influence of exposure disparities in the rate of uncertainty reduction highlights the importance of minority representation in environmental research as a quantitative advantage to produce more confident estimates of the true effects of environmental pollution.
30 May 2023Submitted to ESS Open Archive
01 Jun 2023Published in ESS Open Archive