Wet Antecedent Conditions and High Baseflow Trigger Widespread Floods in
Indian Sub-continental River Basins
Abstract
Widespread floods affecting multiple subbasins in a river basin are more
disastrous than localized flooding. Understanding the mechanisms,
drivers and probability of widespread flooding is pertinent for devising
suitable policy measures. Here, we investigate the occurrence and
drivers of widespread flooding in seven Indian sub-continental river
basins during the observed climate (1959-2020). We use a novel
methodology for determining widespread floods and a non-stationary
extreme value distribution to identify the mechanisms of widespread
flooding. We find that the peninsular river basins have a high
probability of widespread flooding, while the transboundary basins of
Ganga and Brahmaputra have a low probability. In addition to wet
antecedent conditions, the relative rareness of high flows across
different subbasins is crucial in explaining the variability of
widespread flood probability across different river basins. Our results
show that favourable antecedent baseflow and soil moisture conditions,
uniform precipitation distribution, and streamflow seasonality determine
the seasonality and probability of widespread floods. Further,
widespread floods are associated with large atmospheric circulations,
resulting in near-uniform precipitation within a river basin. Moreover,
we found no significant relation between widespread floods and oceanic
circulations. Our findings highlight the prominent drivers and
mechanisms of widespread floods with implications for flood mitigation
in India.