Evaluating the representation of tropical stratocumulus and shallow
cumulus clouds as well as their radiative effects in CMIP6 models using
satellite observations
Abstract
Low clouds over tropical oceans reflect a great proportion of solar
radiation back to space and thereby cool the Earth, yet this phenomenon
has been poorly simulated in several previous generations of climate
models. The principal aim of the present study is to employ satellite
observations to evaluate the representation of marine tropical low
clouds and their radiative effect at the top of the atmosphere in a
subset of latest climate models participating in CMIP6. We strive for
regime-oriented model validation and hence introduce a qualitative
approach to discriminate stratocumulus (Sc) from shallow cumulus (Cu).
The novel Sc-Cu categorization has a conceptual advantage of being based
on cloud properties, rather than relying on a model response to a
cloud-controlling factor. We find that CMIP6 models underestimate
low-cloud cover in both Sc- and Cu-regions of tropical oceans. A more
detailed investigation of cloud biases reveals that most CMIP6 models
underestimate the relative frequency of occurrence (RFO) of Sc and
overestimate RFO of Cu. We further demonstrate that tropical low
cloudiness in CMIP6 models remains too bright. The regime-oriented
validation represents the basis for improving parameterizations of
physical processes that determine the cloud cover and radiative impact
of Sc and Cu, which are still misrepresented in current climate models.