Abstract
This study uses a newly-developed firebrand spotting parameterization in
simulations of the Marshall Fire (2021) to demonstrate that without fire
spotting, wind-driven fire simulations cannot reproduce the behavior of
some fires. The Marshall Fire, the most destructive in Colorado’s
history, took mere hours to cause nearly half a billion dollars in
damage and destroy over 1000 homes. In wind-driven events that occur in
the wildland-urban interface, the model’s ability to spot is critical
for modeling fire spread over water streams and urban features such as
highways. Without ignition of fire spots, the simulated Marshall Fire
cannot advance. In cases when spotting significantly contributes to fire
spread, the process’ nonlinear nature is a source of uncertainty to
modeling fire behavior that can broaden the model’s ensemble spread and
possibly produce a more realistic probability of outcomes. The results
in this study corroborate the importance of representing fire spotting
in atmosphere-fire behavior coupled models, such as WRF-Fire.