Abstract
Spatial analogs have previously been used to communicate climate
projections by comparing the future climate of a location with an
analogous recent climate at a different location which is typically
hotter. In this study, spatial climate analogs were computed using
observational data to identify and quantify past changes. A sigma
dissimilarity metric was computed to compare the recent climates of nine
major Australian cities and early 20th century
climate. Evidence of climate shifts is found, particularly in locations,
such as Perth, where precipitation has significantly changed in addition
to the warming trend observed at all cities. Analogs designed to capture
extremes, including a human health-relevant climate analog, were
constructed and these also highlight significant climate shifts. This
work demonstrates the utility of climate analogs for monitoring past
climate changes as well as examining future change. Tailored analogs
could be studied to communicate climate changes relevant to specific
stakeholders.