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Identifying historical climate changes through spatial analogs
  • Andrew David King
Andrew David King
University of Melbourne

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Abstract

Spatial analogs have previously been used to communicate climate projections by comparing the future climate of a location with an analogous recent climate at a different location which is typically hotter. In this study, spatial climate analogs were computed using observational data to identify and quantify past changes. A sigma dissimilarity metric was computed to compare the recent climates of nine major Australian cities and early 20th century climate. Evidence of climate shifts is found, particularly in locations, such as Perth, where precipitation has significantly changed in addition to the warming trend observed at all cities. Analogs designed to capture extremes, including a human health-relevant climate analog, were constructed and these also highlight significant climate shifts. This work demonstrates the utility of climate analogs for monitoring past climate changes as well as examining future change. Tailored analogs could be studied to communicate climate changes relevant to specific stakeholders.