Correcting systematic and state-dependent errors in the NOAA FV3-GFS
using neural networks
Abstract
Weather forecasts made with imperfect models contain flow- and
state-dependent errors. Data assimilation (DA) partially corrects these
errors with new information from observations. As such, the corrections,
or “analysis increments’, produced by the DA process embed information
about model errors. An attempt is made here to extract that information
to improve numerical weather prediction. Neural networks (NNs) are
trained to predict corrections to the systematic error in the NOAA’s
FV3-GFS model based on a large set of analysis increments. A simple NN
focusing on an atmospheric column significantly improves the estimated
model error correction relative to a linear baseline. Leveraging
large-scale horizontal flow conditions using a convolutional NN, when
compared to the simple column-oriented NN, does not improve skill in
correcting model error. The sensitivity of model error correction to
forecast inputs is highly localized by vertical level and by
meteorological variable, and the error characteristics vary across
vertical levels. Once trained, the NNs are used to apply an online
correction to the forecast during model integration. Improvements are
evaluated both within a cycled DA system and across a collection of
10-day forecasts. It is found that applying state-dependent NN-predicted
corrections to the model forecast improves the overall quality of DA and
improves the 10-day forecast skill at all lead times.