Systematic Calibration of A Convection-Resolving Model: Application over
Tropical Atlantic
Abstract
Non-hydrostatic km-scale weather and climate models show significant
improvements in simulating clouds, especially convective ones. However,
even km-scale models need to parameterize some physical processes and
are thus subject to the corresponding uncertainty of parameters.
Systematic calibration has the advantage of improving model performance
with transparency and reproducibility, thus benefiting model
intercomparison projects, process studies, and climate-change scenario
simulations. In this paper, the regional atmospheric climate model COSMO
v6 is systematically calibrated over the Tropical South Atlantic. First,
the parameters’ sensitivities are evaluated with respect to a set of
validation fields. Five of the most sensitive parameters are chosen for
calibration. The objective calibration then closely follows a
methodology extensively used for regional climate simulations. This
includes simulations considering the interaction of all pairs of
parameters, and the exploitation of a quadratic-form metamodel to
emulate the simulations. In the current set-up with 5 parameters, 51
simulations are required to build the metamodel. The model is calibrated
for the year 2016 and validated in two different years using slightly
different model setups (domain and resolution). Both years demonstrate
significant improvements, in particular for outgoing shortwave
radiation, with reductions of the bias by a factor of 3 to 4. The
results thus show that parameter calibration is a useful and efficient
tool for model improvement. Calibrating over a larger domain might help
improve the overall performance, but could potentially also lead to
compromises among different regions and variables, and require more
computational resources.