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Calibration and Uncertainty Quantification of Gravity Wave Parameterization in an Intermediate Complexity Climate Model
  • Laura A Mansfield,
  • Aditi Sheshadri
Laura A Mansfield
Stanford University

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Aditi Sheshadri
Stanford University
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Abstract

The drag due to breaking atmospheric gravity waves plays a leading order role in driving the middle atmosphere circulation, but as their horizontal wavelength ranges from tens to thousands of kilometers, part of their spectrum must be parameterized in climate models. Gravity wave parameterizations prescribe a source spectrum of waves in the lower atmosphere and allow these to propagate upwards until they either dissipate or break, where they deposit drag on the large-scale flow. These parameterizations are a source of uncertainty in climate modeling which is generally not quantified. Here, we explore the uncertainty associated with a non-orographic gravity wave parameterization in a global climate model of intermediate complexity, using the Calibrate, Emulate and Sample (CES) method. We first calibrate the uncertain parameters that define the gravity wave source spectrum in the tropics, to obtain climate model settings that are consistent with properties of the primary mode of tropical stratospheric variability, the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO). Then we use a Gaussian process emulator to sample the calibrated distribution of parameters and quantify the uncertainty of these parameter choices. We find that the resulting parametric uncertainties on the QBO period and amplitude are of a similar magnitude to the internal variability under a 2xCO2 forcing.