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Predicting Antarctic net snow accumulation at the kilometer scale and its impact on observed height changes
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  • Brooke Medley,
  • Jan Thérèse Maria Lenaerts,
  • Marissa Eileen Dattler,
  • Eric Keenan,
  • Nander Wever
Brooke Medley
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Jan Thérèse Maria Lenaerts
University of Colorado Boulder, University of Colorado Boulder
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Marissa Eileen Dattler
University of Maryland College Park, University of Maryland College Park
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Eric Keenan
University of Colorado Boulder, University of Colorado Boulder
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Nander Wever
University of Colorado Boulder, University of Colorado Boulder
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Abstract

Sub-grid-scale processes occurring at or near the surface of an ice sheet have a potentially large impact on local and integrated net accumulation of snow via redistribution and sublimation. Given observational complexity, they are either ignored or parameterized over large-length scales. Here, we train random forest models to predict 1-km variability in net accumulation over the Antarctic Ice Sheet using atmospheric variables and topographic characteristics as predictors. Observations of net snow accumulation from both in situ and airborne radar data provide the input observable targets needed to train the random forest models. We find that kilometer-scale processes modify local net accumulation by as much as 172% of the atmospheric model mean. The correlation in space between the predicted net accumulation variability and satellite-derived surface-height change indicates that kilometer-scale processes operate differently through time, driven largely by the seasonal anomalies in snow accumulation.