The Association between Rainfall, Temperature and Reported Drinking
Water Source: A Multi-Country Analysis
Abstract
Climate change may alter access to safe drinking water, with important
implications for health. We assessed the relationship between
temperature and rainfall and utilization of basic drinking water (BDW)
in The Gambia, Mozambique, Pakistan, and Kenya. The outcomes of interest
were 1) whether the reported drinking water source used in the past two
weeks met the World Health Organization definition of BDW and 2) use of
a BDW source that was always available. Temperature and precipitation
data were compiled from weather stations and satellite data and
summarized to account for long- and short-term weather patterns and
lags. We utilized random forests and logistic regression to identify key
weather variables that predicted outcomes by site and the association
between important weather variables and BDW use. Higher temperatures
were associated with decreased BDW use at three of four sites and
decreased use of BDW that is always available at all four sites.
Rainfall, both in the long- and short-term, was associated with
increased BDW use in three sites. We found evidence for interactions
between household wealth and weather variables at two sites, suggesting
lower wealth populations may be more sensitive to weather-driven changes
in water access. Changes in temperature and precipitation can alter safe
water use in low-resource settings – investigating drivers for these
relationships can inform efforts to build climate resilience.