Abstract

In 2021, Nepal underwent its most severe fire season, resulting in a fire rate 10 times greater than the historical average in many areas of the country with record-high air pollution levels. Leading the fire outbreaks in March of 2021, the country experienced an extreme precipitation deficit and drought in the post-monsoon season. Current community forest management practices and resultant forest growth may have exacerbated the conflagration, but an analysis using observational, reanalysis, and climate model ensemble data indicates that climate variability and climate change induced severe drought conditions that resulted in the anomalous fire season. While warning of the likely re-occurrence of extremely active fire seasons in Nepal through the end of the 21st century, this research also proposes a statistical model for sub-seasonal prediction that could help mitigate the projected effects of the drought-fire paradigm.