Dynamics of the Global Energy Budget: the Time Dependence of the Climate
Feedback Parameter and Climate Sensitivity.
Abstract
The most simple representation of the dynamics of the global energy
budget is the 0-dimensional energy balance model (EBM) introduced by
Budyko (1965). Budyko’s EBM assumes a linear relationship between the
Earth’s radiative response and the global surface temperature such that
the dynamics of the global energy budget reads CdTs/dt = N = F - λ Ts,
where Ts is the global surface temperature, N is the Earth Energy
Imbalance, C is the ocean heat capacity and λ is the constant climate
feedback parameter. Such simple conceptual model depicts reasonably well
the centennial time scale response of the steady state preindustrial
global energy budget under an anomalous forcing such as the increase of
atmospheric greenhouse gases concentrations. For this reason it has
served as the basis for the definition of the effective climate
sensitivity to atmospheric CO2 concentrations. However recent studies
identified limitations to Budyko’s EBM. Indeed climate model simulations
show that the radiative response of the Earth not only depends on the
global surface temperature but also on its geographical pattern: the
so-called “pattern effect”. It arises from changes in the mix of
radiative forcings, lag-dependent responses to forcings, or unforced
variability and it leads to an apparent time variation in λ. This time
variation must be accounted for in Budyko’s EBM to represent the longer
term response of the global energy budget under increased CO2
concentrations. Here, a simple theory is developed to account for the
time dependency of λ in the global energy budget. The resulting
differential equation accurately reproduces the long term response (i.e.
>200 years) of climate under abrupt changes in CO2
concentrations as simulated in the longrunmip experiment. Analysis of
the asymptotic form of the differential equation yields a new expression
of the climate sensitivity which not only depends on the climate
feedback parameter but also on its temporal change. We evaluate this new
climate sensitivity for all runs of the longrunmip experiment and show
how it relates with the classical effective climate sensitivity from
Gregory et al. (2004). We find that the spread in climate sensitivity
among climate models of the longrunmip experiment is essentially due to
different temporal changes in λ (and thus different pattern effect)
among models.