Abstract
Arctic sea ice has substantially changed over the past four decades,
with a large decrease in sea-ice area and volume. The exact causes of
these changes are not entirely known. In our study, we make use of the
Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute Large Ensemble
(SMHI-LENS). This ensemble consists of 50 members realized with the
EC-Earth3 global climate model and covers the period 1970-2100. We apply
the Liang-Kleeman information flow method to analyze the cause-effect
relationships between Arctic sea ice and its potential drivers. We show
that recent and future changes in Arctic sea ice are mainly driven by
air and sea-surface temperatures and ocean heat transport. Conversely,
changes in Arctic sea ice also considerably impact temperature and ocean
heat transport. Finally, we find a progressive decrease in the influence
of sea-ice area and volume on air temperature and ocean heat transport
through the twenty-first century.