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Hidden potential in predicting wintertime temperature anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere
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  • Mikhail Dobrynin,
  • André Düsterhus,
  • Kristina Fröhlich,
  • Panos Athanasiadis,
  • Paolo Ruggieri,
  • Wolfgang A. Müller,
  • Johanna Baehr
Mikhail Dobrynin
Deutscher Wetterdienst

Corresponding Author:mikhail.dobrynin@dwd.de

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André Düsterhus
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Kristina Fröhlich
Deutscher Wetterdienst
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Panos Athanasiadis
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Paolo Ruggieri
University of Bologna
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Wolfgang A. Müller
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology
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Johanna Baehr
Universität Hamburg, Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability
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Variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) drives wintertime temperature anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere. Dynamical seasonal prediction systems can skilfully predict the winter NAO. However, prediction of the NAO-dependent air temperature anomalies remains elusive, partially due to the low variability of predicted NAO. Here, we demonstrate a hidden potential of a multi-model ensemble of operational seasonal prediction systems for predicting wintertime temperature by increasing the variability of predicted NAO. We identify and subsample those ensemble members which are close to NAO index estimated from initial autumn conditions. In our novel multi-model approach, the correlation prediction skill for wintertime Central Europe temperature is improved from 0.25 to 0.66, accompanied by an increased winter NAO prediction skill of 0.9. Thereby, temperature anomalies can be skilfully predicted for the upcoming winter over a large part of the Northern Hemisphere through increased variability and skill of predicted NAO.