A Prediction model of relativistic electrons at geostationary orbit
using the EMD-LSTM network and geomagnetic indexes
Abstract
In this study, We construct the EMD-LSTM model, combined the Empirical
Mode Decomposition algorithm (EMD) and the Long Short Term Memory neural
network (LSTM), to predict the variation of the >2MeV
electron fluxes. The Pc5 power and related geomagnetic indexes as input
parameters are used to predict the >2MeV electron fluxes.
Compared the prediction results of the model with other classical
prediction models, the results shows that the one-day ahead prediction
efficiency of the > 2MeV electron fluxes is above 0.80, and
the highest prediction efficiency can reach 0.92 in 2011-2013, which is
much better than the prediction result of classical prediction models.
Selected two high-energy electron flux storm events to verify, the
results indicates that the performance of the EMD-LSTM model in the
period of the high-energy electron flux storm is also relatively good,
especially for the prediction of high-energy electron fluxes at extreme
points, and the prediction is closer to actual observation.