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Improving Predictions of Stream CO2 Concentrations and Fluxes using a Stream Network Model: a Case Study in the East River Watershed, CO, USA
  • Brian Saccardi,
  • Matthew Winnick
Brian Saccardi
University of Massachusetts Amherst

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Matthew Winnick
University of Massachusetts Amherst
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Rivers and streams are an important component of the global carbon budget, emitting CO2 to the atmosphere. However, our ability to accurately predict carbon fluxes from stream systems remains uncertain due to small scales of pCO2 variability within streams (100-102 m), which make monitoring intractable. Here we incorporate CO2 input and output fluxes into a stream network advection-reaction model, representing the first process-based representation of stream CO2 dynamics at watershed scales. This model includes groundwater (GW) CO2 inputs, water column and benthic hyporheic zone (BZ) respiration, downstream advection, and atmospheric exchange. We evaluate this model against existing statistical methods including upscaling techniques and multiple linear regression models through comparisons to high-resolution stream pCO2 data collected across the East River Watershed in the Colorado Rocky Mountains. The stream network model accurately captures topography-driven pCO2 variability and significantly outperforms multiple linear regressions for predicting pCO2. Further, the model provides estimates of CO2 contributions from internal versus external sources and suggests that streams transition from GW- to BZ-dominated sources between 3rd and 4th Strahler orders, with GW and BZ accounting for 53 and 47% of CO2 fluxes from the watershed, respectively. Lastly, stream network model CO2 fluxes are 5-13x times smaller than upscaling technique predictions, largely due to inverse correlations between stream pCO2 and atmosphere exchange velocities. Taken together, the stream network model presented improves our ability to predict and monitor stream CO2 dynamics, and future applications to regional and global scales may result in a significant downward revision of global flux estimates.
Dec 2021Published in Global Biogeochemical Cycles volume 35 issue 12. 10.1029/2021GB006972