Why are ELEvoHI CME arrival predictions different if based on STEREO-A
or STEREO-B heliospheric imager observations?
Abstract
Accurate forecasting of the arrival time and arrival speed of coronal
mass ejections (CMEs) is a unsolved problem in space weather research.
In this study, a comparison of the predicted arrival times and speeds
for each CME based, independently, on the inputs from the two STEREO
vantage points is carried out. We perform hindcasts using ELlipse
Evolution model based on Heliospheric Imager observations (ELEvoHI)
ensemble modelling. An estimate of the ambient solar wind conditions is
obtained by the Wang-Sheeley-Arge/Heliospheric Upwind eXtrapolation
(WSA/HUX) model combination that serves as input to ELEvoHI. We
carefully select 12 CMEs between February 2010 and July 2012 that show
clear signatures in both STEREO-A and STEREO-B HI time-elongation maps,
that propagate close to the ecliptic plane, and that have corresponding
in situ signatures at Earth. We find a mean arrival time difference of
6.5 hrs between predictions from the two different viewpoints, which can
reach up to 9.5 hrs for individual CMEs, while the mean arrival speed
difference is 63 km s$^{-1}$. An ambient solar wind with a large
speed variance leads to larger differences in the STEREO-A and STEREO-B
CME arrival time predictions ($cc = 0.92$). Additionally, we compare
the predicted arrivals, from both spacecraft, to the actual in situ
arrivals at Earth and find a mean absolute error of 7.5
$\pm$ 9.5 hrs for the arrival time and 87
$\pm$ 111 km s$^{-1}$ for the arrival speed.
There is no tendency for one spacecraft to provide more accurate arrival
predictions than the other.