Variation of snow mass in a regional climate model simulation covering
the Tianshan Mountains, Central Asia
Abstract
Mountain snow is a fundamental freshwater supply in the arid regions.
Climate warming alters the timing of snowmelt and shortens the snow
cover duration, which profoundly influences the regional climate and
water management. However, a reliable estimation of snow mass in the
Tianshan Mountains (TS) is still unclear due to the scarcity of
extensive continuous surface observations and a complex spatial
heterogeneity. Therefore, a long-time series of snow simulation was
performed in the WRF/Noah-MP from 1982 until 2018 to quantify the snow
mass in the TS, forced by the ERA5 reanalysis data and real-time updated
leaf area index and green vegetation fraction. Meanwhile, March snow
mass (close to the annual peak snow mass), snow cover fraction (SCF),
and trends were investigated in the TS. The results indicated a good
accuracy of the estimated snow water equivalent (root mean square error
(RMSE): 7.82 mm/day) with a slight overestimation (2.84 mm/day).
Compared with the ERA5 dataset, the RMSE and mean bias (MB) of the daily
snow depth from the WRF/Noah-MP were significantly reduced by 95.74%
and 93.02%, respectively. The climatological March snow mass measured
97.85 (±16.60) gigatonnes in the TS and exhibited a negligible tendency.
The total precipitation during the cold season controlled the variations
of the March snow mass. The increased precipitation in the high-altitude
regions contributed to an extensive snow mass, which could offset the
loss in the TS lowland. In contrast, rapidly rising air temperature
caused a significant reduction of the March SCF, particularly in the
Southern TS.