Sensitivity of 21st century ocean carbon export flux projections to the
choice of export depth horizon
Abstract
Global Earth system model simulations of ocean carbon export flux are
commonly interpreted only at a fixed depth horizon of 100-m, despite the
fact that the maximum annual mixed layer depth (MLDmax)
is a more appropriate depth horizon to evaluate export-driven carbon
sequestration. We compare particulate organic carbon (POC) flux and
export efficiency (e-ratio) evaluated at both the MLDmax
and 100-m depth horizons, simulated for the 21st
century (2005-2100) under the RCP8.5 climate change scenario with the
Biogeochemical Elemental Cycle model embedded in the Community Earth
System Model (CESM1-BEC). These two depth horizon choices produce
differing baseline global rates and spatial patterns of POC flux and
e-ratio, with the greatest discrepancies found in regions with deep
winter mixing. Over the 21st century, enhanced
stratification reduces the depth of MLDmax, with the
most pronounced reductions in regions that currently experience the
deepest winter mixing. Simulated global mean decreases in POC flux and
in e-ratio over the 21st century are similar for both
depth horizons (8-9% for POC flux and 4-6% for e-ratio), yet the
spatial patterns of change are quite different. The model simulates less
pronounced decreases and even increases in POC flux and e-ratio in deep
winter mixing regions when evaluated at MLDmax, since
enhanced stratification over the 21st century shoals
the depth of this horizon. The differing spatial patterns of change
across these two depth horizons demonstrate the importance of including
multiple export depth horizons in observational and modeling efforts to
monitor and predict potential future changes to export.