Medium Energy Electron Flux in Earth’s Outer Radiation Belt (MERLIN): A
Machine Learning Model
Abstract
The radiation belts of the Earth, filled with energetic electrons,
comprise complex and dynamic systems that pose a significant threat to a
variety of satellite systems. While various models of the relativistic
electron flux have been developed for geostationary orbit (GEO), the
behaviour of the medium energy (120-600 keV) electrons below GEO remains
poorly quantified. In this paper we present a Medium Energy electRon
flux In Earth’s outer radiatioN belt (MERLIN) model based on the Light
Gradient Boosting (LightGBM) machine learning algorithm. The MERLIN
model takes as input the satellite position, a combination of
geomagnetic indices and solar wind parameters including the time history
of velocity, and does not use persistence. MERLIN is trained and
validated on $>$15 years of the GPS electron flux data,
and tested on more than $1.5$ years of measurements. 10-fold cross
validation (CV) yields that the model predicts the MEO radiation
environment well, both in terms of dynamics and amplitudes of flux.
Evaluation on the test set yields high correlation between the predicted
and observed electron flux (0.8) and low values of absolute error. The
MERLIN model can have wide Space Weather applications, providing
information for the scientific community in the form of radiation belts
reconstructions, as well as industry for satellite mission design,
nowcast of the MEO environment and surface charging analysis.